The probability of central U.S. summer averaged daily maximum temperature anomalies exceeding the hottest observed summer on record (+2.9°C in 1936) for (top) MPI-ESM1.2 and (bottom) GFDL SPEAR. Probabilities for an individual year are calculated as the fraction of ensemble members exceeding the summer-1936 threshold based on analysis of 150 model realizations for a centered 5-yr window. Departures are all calculated relative to a 1957–2000 reference.
Citation: Journal of Climate 36, 20; 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0716.1