Monthly and annual time to emergence of top-of-atmosphere all-sky Arctic absorbed shortwave radiation. (a) Average time to emergence and uncertainty in the CESM1-LE. Blue error bars span a bootstrapped 95% confidence interval on time to emergence for individual (N = 1) ensemble members, (b) Time to emergence in the CESM1-LE and CESM2-CMIP5 ensembles. Yellow error bars indicate a bootstrapped 95% confidence interval on 10-member ensembles from the CESM1-LE. In both panels the dashed gray line indicates the current length of the CERES observational record.
Citation: Journal of Climate 36, 20; 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0020.1
