The probability of detection (solid) and false alarm ratio (dashed) for a (left) peak or (right) trough in regime frequency in 10-member subsamples of the SEAS5 ensembles occurring in the same year as a (a) very strong El Niño or (b) strong La Niña, as a function of the percentile used for the definition of the peaks and troughs. The colored lines indicate the regime values, and the gray lines show the values for peaks and troughs occurring in random years (i.e., no signal).
Citation: Journal of Climate 36, 24; 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0419.1
