Iran renewed attacks on the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, causing oil loading at the port of Fujairah to be at least partly halted after the third attack in four days. FILE IMAGE: PIXABAY
Oil futures fell more than 1% on Friday and were on track for their steepest weekly decline since early April, following reports that the US and Iran had reached a potential deal to extend a ceasefire.
Brent crude futures for July fell 1.32% or $1.24 to $92.47 a barrel at 0656 GMT. US oil futures fell $1.38, or 1.55%, to $87.52 a barrel.
Brent has plunged 10.5% this week – the steepest fall since the week that ended on April 6, while WTI has dropped 9.2% – the biggest weekly loss since the week that ended on April 13.
Ceasefire agreement
The US and Iran reached an agreement on Thursday to extend a ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, sources told Reuters, though US President Donald Trump has yet to approve it and Iranian state media said it had not been finalised.
“Consensus remains that the conflict is over, and a deal is coming. As long as this narrative holds, crude oil has room to extend its decline toward trendline support in the low $80s,” IG analyst Tony Sycamore said.
Read: Oil surges after Iran targets US airbase in retaliation
Prices have been volatile in recent sessions, swinging by as much as $6 for both benchmarks on conflicting signals over a possible end to the three-month-old Iran war and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
Recovery remains uncertain
Traffic through the maritime chokepoint remains a small fraction of the pre-war level. Analysts at ING said a reopening of the waterway would offer some immediate relief to the oil market, but a recovery is still uncertain.
“Upstream oil production has fallen significantly since the war, with producers shutting in production in order to manage storage constraints,” ING said in a note. “The recovery in upstream production will be gradual rather than immediate”.
“Refineries in the region need to ramp up output. This will take time, given that some of this infrastructure was targeted in attacks earlier in the conflict”.
