By the time Selection Sunday arrives, there will have been plenty of movement in the projected field of 68 for the 2026 NCAA tournament regarding the teams that are in, as well as those looking to get in.
While our Tuesday and Friday Bracketology updates allow us to look at the race to March Madness holistically twice a week, results every day matter and can affect teams — whether they’re playing or not.
Men’s Bracketologist Joe Lunardi is tracking every relevant game every night — and why shouldn’t you?
Here, we provide an inside look at the headlines and upcoming matchups that inform Joey Brackets’ calculations on any given night, as he projects the teams that could have their names called on Selection Sunday (March 15).
A couple of housekeeping things: This page will update every day between Monday and Saturday, with some exceptions. Games are listed in order of importance to bracket movement. A team’s projection on that day is listed in parentheses if not otherwise noted.
Scores available here. All times Eastern
Projected field of 68 |
NCAA tournament details |
Bubble Watch |
Champ Week schedule
Monday, Feb. 23
HEADLINES
-
A new No. 1 overall: Duke‘s win over Michigan moves the Blue Devils above the Wolverines to take the top spot — setting off a domino effect on the top four lines of each region. One could argue the order of Michigan (No. 2 overall) and Arizona (No. 3 overall). It is essentially a distinction without a difference.
-
The 1-seed that didn’t last: The selection committee’s top 16 reveal, which included Iowa State as a semisurprising 1-seed, had a shelf life of less than 12 hours after the Cyclones lost at BYU late Saturday. UConn — which won earlier at Villanova — moved back up to the top line.
-
Who’s lurking right behind: After a rough week with losses to Iowa State and Arizona, Houston could return to the 1-seed picture (though not the actual seed line, yet) with a win at Phog Allen tonight.
-
The new 1-seeds: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, UConn
-
The new 2-seeds: Iowa State, Purdue, Houston, Illinois (drops to the final 2-seed spot overtime upset loss at UCLA).
-
The new 3-seeds: Florida, Nebraska, Gonzaga, Kansas (dropped to the final 3-seed spot after losing to Cincinnati at home on Saturday).
-
The new 4-seeds: Michigan State, Texas Tech, Virginia, Alabama.
-
State of the bubble: Weekend losses by both Ohio State (at Michigan State, which was explicable) and USC (at home to Oregon, which was inexplicable) dropped both teams to the wrong side of the cut line in favor of TCU and New Mexico.
-
More bad news for the Buckeyes: Barring a miracle, the Buckeyes are going to have a hard time overcoming an 0-9 record in Quad 1 for at-large consideration from the committee.
GAMES THAT COULD AFFECT THE BRACKET
-
(2) Houston at (3) Kansas. With a 1- or 2-seed off the table, the Jayhawks need to be thinking about securing no worse than a No. 3 to avoid their region’s top seed until the Elite Eight. As mentioned above, Houston could return to the 1-seed discussion with a win. 9 p.m., ESPN
-
(6) Louisville at (6) North Carolina. A pair of 6-seeds, both with designs on a No. 4 spot, tangle for the first and only time in Chapel Hill. The loser will be out of the running for a protected spot on that 4-line. 7 p.m., ESPN
-
New Orleans at (13) Stephen F. Austin. SFA clinches no worse than a Southland tie with a win. 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
