US–Venezuela Conflict: Caracas Oil Revamp May Help India Recover $1 Billion

A Trump administration–backed reset of Venezuela’s oil sector could help India recover nearly $1 billion in long-pending dues.

A possible US-backed restructuring of Venezuela’s oil industry could deliver a meaningful financial and strategic gain for India, including recovery of nearly USD 1 billion in long-pending dues and a restart of crude production from fields involving Indian companies, according to analysts and sources, as reported by PTI.

India was once a major processor of Venezuelan heavy crude, importing over 4,00,000 barrels per day at peak levels. Supplies stopped in 2020 after US sanctions tightened compliance norms and made trade commercially unviable.

Indian Investments Stalled by Sanctions

India’s overseas oil arm, ONGC Videsh Ltd, operates the San Cristobal oilfield in eastern Venezuela in partnership with the local state producer. Output has dropped sharply to 5,000–10,000 bpd, as sanctions restricted access to drilling rigs, technology and oilfield services.

Venezuela has not paid USD 536 million in dividends due on OVL’s 40 percent stake up to 2014, PTI reported. A similar amount remains unpaid for later years, with audits not permitted, effectively freezing settlement of claims.

Production Revival Possible

If sanctions are relaxed following recent political developments in Caracas, Indian operators could move rigs and equipment from domestic fields, including ONGC’s assets in Gujarat, to revive production. With adequate investment and drilling activity, San Cristobal alone can produce 80,000–1,00,000 bpd, officials familiar with the field said.

Broader Indian Exposure

Indian firms also have stakes in the Carabobo-1 heavy oil block. OVL holds 11 percent, while Indian Oil Corporation and Oil India Ltd own 3.5 percent each. Venezuela’s national oil company PDVSA is the majority partner but may undergo restructuring.

Why Venezuela Matters to India

Indian refiners such as Reliance Industries, Nayara Energy, IOC, HPCL-Mittal Energy and Mangalore Refinery have the technical capability to process Venezuelan heavy crude efficiently.

With India diversifying its crude basket and reducing concentration risks, Venezuelan oil could offer flexibility in sourcing and strengthen negotiating leverage. Analysts, PTI reported, note that if production rises and payment mechanisms normalise, trade flows could resume quickly—bringing both financial recovery and long-term supply security for India.