While the global AI chip market is witnessing fluctuations in the stock profit-loss situations,analysts expect another record profit as the world’s largest manufacturer of advanced artificial intelligence AI chips, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co TSMC is expected to post a 27% jump in fourth-quarter net profit to a record due to the seemingly insatiable demand for AI infrastructure.
According to an LSEG SmartEstimate compiled from 19 analysts, TSMC, opens new tab, the world’s top contract chipmaker and a key supplier to Nvidia, opens new tab and Apple, opens new tab, is forecast to report a net profit of T$475.2 billion ($15.02 billion) for the three months through December 31.
SmartEstimates places greater weight on forecasts from analysts who are more consistently accurate.
As reported by Reuters, Asia’s most valuable listed company TSMC, with a market capitalization of around $1.38 trillion—more than twice that of South Korean rival Samsung Electronics—is due to report on Thursday, January 15, 2026, and will provide first-quarter and full-year guidance.
Last week, it posted a market-forecast-beating rise in fourth-quarter revenue of 20.45%. Any profit result above T$452.3 billion would mark the company’s highest-ever quarterly net income and its eighth consecutive quarter of profit growth.
Fourth-quarter revenue was driven by full utilization of TSMC’s 3-nanometer capacity, fuelled by the iPhone 17 series using Apple’s A19 chip, as well as sustained robust demand for AI, said Galen Zeng, senior research manager at research firm IDC.
“The main driver is the explosive growth of the AI server accelerator manufacturing market,” Zeng said, adding that the market is projected to grow 78% year-over-year in 2026.
Chief market strategist at Futurum Equities, Shay Boloor, said AI demand is clearly accelerating and TSMC continues to gain share at the leading edge, where competitors are struggling to keep pace.
But a faster-than-expected ramp-up of overseas fabs could dilute margin gains expected from TSMC’s 2-nanometer node and pricing, he added.
TSMC is investing $165 billion to build chip factories in the U.S. in the state of Arizona, and U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said in a podcast released last week the company was set to invest more into the country.
While it will remain unclear how much U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs will affect TSMC, as Taiwan’s exports to the United States are subject to a 20% tariff, that excludes chips.
Additionally, TSMC’s Taipei-listed shares gained 44.2% last year, outperforming the 25.7% rise for the broader market.
