RIL Hits Record High, ONGC And Oil Stocks Rise Up To 2% From US Move On Venezuela Oil

Oil (Representative Image)

Reliance Industries rose over 1% to a fresh 52-week high of Rs 1,611.20 on Monday, while oil-linked stocks such as ONGC, Oil India and Indian Oil Corporation gained up to 2%, tracking heightened geopolitical tensions after a dramatic US military operation in Venezuela over the weekend. The developments revived investor focus on Indian companies with exposure to Venezuelan assets, even as crude prices remained largely range-bound amid global supply concerns.

Hindustan Petroleum led the gains, rising 1.85% to an intraday high of Rs 508.45. ONGC advanced 1.16% to Rs 246.80, Indian Oil climbed 1.03% to Rs 168.79, while Oil India added 0.47% to Rs 432.45.

According to reports, American forces carried out a large-scale operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and taking them to the US to face charges including narco-terrorism and drug trafficking. Former US President Donald Trump said the US would “run the country” until a “proper” transition of power, injecting fresh uncertainty into Venezuela’s oil sector and its overseas partners.

ONGC is expected to remain in focus as its overseas arm, ONGC Videsh, holds equity stakes in two Venezuelan oil projects. The state-run explorer’s exposure has drawn renewed attention amid speculation that a US-led restructuring of Venezuela’s oil industry could unlock long-pending cash flows.

Global brokerage Jefferies said ONGC could potentially recover around $500 million in unpaid dividends from its Venezuelan investment. “ONGC has not been paid its share of dividends from production at San Cristobal, totaling more than $500 million,” Jefferies said, adding that US intervention could improve the prospects of recovery, subject to easing of sanctions and changes in control and crude marketing.

The unpaid dividends relate to ONGC Videsh’s investment in the San Cristobal field. Although the project has been producing, US sanctions had blocked the repatriation of profits, forcing ONGC to carry the receivables on its books.

Jefferies noted that any recovery would add to ONGC’s already strong cash generation. The company reported consolidated net profit of Rs 571 billion in FY24, with free cash flow to firm of Rs 473.6 billion. The stock trades below book value, with a FY24 price-to-book of 0.9 times and an earnings yield of 18.1%, leaving room for a potential re-rating if Venezuela-linked cash flows materialise.

The brokerage also highlighted optional upside from ONGC’s second Venezuelan asset, the Carabobo field in the Orinoco belt, where it holds an 11% equity stake. Stalled capital expenditure plans could revive under a more favourable operating environment, it said.

Oil India is also likely to be watched closely. Through its subsidiary Oil India Sweden AB, the company owns 50% of Indoil Netherlands B.V., which in turn holds a 7% stake in Petrocarabobo S.A., the joint venture for the Carabobo-1 project in Venezuela.

Reliance Industries could remain in focus as well, given its past purchases of Venezuelan crude. However, reports in March 2025 indicated that the company may halt such imports after the US announced a 25% tariff on countries buying oil from Venezuela. India Ratings and Research has said RIL’s strong cash flows, large cash reserves and access to capital markets should help it maintain financial flexibility, even as it steps up investments in new-age businesses.

Indian Oil Corporation may also draw attention, as its subsidiary IOC Sweden AB serves as an investment vehicle for exploration and production projects in Venezuela.

Meanwhile, broader oil-linked stocks could face some pressure after crude prices eased following the US–Venezuela developments. Brent crude futures were up 0.2% at $60.87 a barrel as markets weighed the impact of the US action and OPEC+’s decision to keep output unchanged.