The impending patent expiry of semaglutide drugs across India, emerging markets and select regulated markets such as Canada and Brazil is expected to create a revenue opportunity of more than Rs 50 billion for generic pharmaceutical companies over the next 12 to 15 months, according to an industry update by Systematix Institutional Research.The report said the opportunity is likely to be shared among 10 to 15 Indian and global generic players. For FY27, incremental revenues are estimated at Rs 10–20 billion from India’s branded formulations market, about Rs 45 billion from regulated markets including Canada and Brazil, and Rs 5–10 billion from emerging markets.While regulated markets could deliver a sharp near-term boost, analysts cautioned that the upside may moderate over time due to pricing pressure and rising competition. In India, the launch of generic semaglutide, expected in the first quarter of FY27, is projected to lift overall Indian Pharmaceutical Market growth by 0.5–1%, reported news agency ANI.Prices are expected to be 30–50% lower initially compared to current levels, with deeper cuts of up to 70–75% over time. This is likely to significantly accelerate the adoption of GLP-1 therapies among diabetic patients. Market leadership in the GLP-1 segment is expected to remain concentrated among five to ten players.Currently, Alkem Laboratories, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories and Sun Pharma have secured regulatory approvals in India, while other players are awaiting clearances. Zydus Lifesciences is pursuing a differentiated injectable version, which could provide a competitive edge despite its smaller diabetes franchise, the report noted.In regulated markets, the combined semaglutide market in Canada and Brazil is estimated at nearly $2 billion annually. Assuming 50% price erosion and 50% market share capture by generics, the addressable opportunity could be around $500 million. Analysts said timely regulatory approvals will be crucial, with Dr Reddy’s potentially emerging as the first Indian entrant in Canada and Sun Pharma enjoying a first-mover advantage in Brazil.Emerging markets are expected to offer steadier, longer-term growth with lower regulatory risks. Companies such as Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy’s, Alkem, Biocon and OneSource Specialty Pharma are seen as well placed to benefit, aided by their existing diabetes portfolios and partnerships. Ancillary players such as Shaily Engineering Plastics could also gain, as demand rises for pen devices used in injectable therapies, as per ANI.
