Of all the reasons that the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments capture the imaginations of Americans in March, chief among them is the underdog stories: The single-elimination nature of the tournament means that every game is of the highest stakes and that any team can go down at any time.
Between the continued proliferation of advanced statistics and online legalized sports betting — sportsbooks are expected to take $2.72 billion worth of wagers between the men’s and women’s tournaments this year — we have more information than ever to use to find the “live dogs.” Though it’s still much easier said than done to figure out which teams will be the Cinderellas of March Madness, insights from sportsbooks can at least help determine which teams might outperform their seedings.
With that said, let’s take a look at which squads could be set to pull off an upset in the first round based on the lines at sportsbooks and how the betting action is moving them.
The Under-seeded Favorites
Let’s start with the opinion of the sportsbooks, who saw the field and identified several games where they didn’t believe the seeding matched up with the actual abilities of the teams involved.
The first example is actually the very first game of the first round. Ninth-seeded Michigan State is hovering as a 1.5-point favorite over eight seed Mississippi State at ESPN BET. The same goes for No. 9 TCU, who is a 4.5-point favorite to beat No. 8 Utah State.
Of course, a nine seed being favored over an eight isn’t groundbreaking given that it’s the closest seed pairing of the first round, so it makes sense that half of such matchups would feature the seeded underdog actually being favored.
The one difference between these two is that TCU has been getting the line movement, making its way to the current number after opening at -2.5. The Horned Frogs have attracted 52% of the bets and 56% of the handle at BetMGM.
There are also two double-digit seeds that the books made favorites from the jump.
The first is Richard Pitino’s New Mexico Lobos, who forced their way into the Big Dance by capturing the Mountain West Tournament title. That momentum has the No. 11 seeded Lobos sitting as 2.5-point favorites over No. 6 seed Clemson, who flamed out of the ACC Tournament with an opening-round loss to Boston College.
It’s definitely a favorable spot for UNM: ESPN Stats & Information notes that No. 11 seeds are 10-4 outright when favored in the Round of 64.
New Mexico’s Mountain West compatriot, No. 10 Nevada, also finds itself slightly favored in its matchup with No. 7 Dayton, giving 1.5 points at ESPN BET, with some sportsbooks getting as low as -1. However, there’s still hope for the Flyers: Since 1984, underdog No. 7 seeds are 20-19 outright in the Round of 64 and are 5-7 in that scenario over the past 10 seasons, per ESPN Stats & Info.
The Line-Movement-Big-Money Underdogs
While it’s far from foolproof, one of the most reliable indicators of a good bet is following the line movement. When sportsbooks receive wagers from some of their sharpest bettors, they move the line to acknowledge where the “smart money” is and bring the line to a potentially accurate equilibrium.
You can confirm this by seeing where the handle percentage on a given bet outnumbers the bet percentage, indicating that the bettors with deeper coffers are backing certain wagers. It can be a useful strategy in trying to identify outright underdog winners. In the 2024 men’s tournament, there are several teams that fit this bill across multiple sportsbooks:
(9) Texas A&M Aggies (+1.5) vs. (8) Nebraska Cornhuskers
FedExForum, Memphis, Tenn., 6:50 p.m. ET
Texas A&M opened at +3.5 at ESPN BET and as low as +2.5 at some shops, but the Aggies have now settled in at +1.5 or +1 depending on the book. What is really telling about Texas A&M is the amount of “smart money” backing them, with 84.7% of the handle at Fanatics Sportsbook, 90% at BetMGM and 91% at DraftKings on the Aggies to cover the spread. Compare that with 72.3% (Fanatics), 76% (BetMGM), and 74% (Draftkings) of the bets backing that number, respectively.
(12) UAB Blazers vs. (5) San Diego State Aztecs (-6.5)
Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena, Spokane, Wash., 1:45 p.m. ET
Like New Mexico, UAB fought its way into the tournament via an automatic bid as AAC champions. When they arrived on betting boards, the Blazers quickly attracted big money, acquiring 75.6% of the money at Fanatics and 91% at BetMGM, where they were one of the most-bet teams by handle in the early going. Buyers should beware, though: Some books still have UAB listed at their opening price of +7.5.
(13) Charleston Cougars vs. (4) Alabama Crimson Tide (-9.5)
Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena, Spokane, Wash., 7:35 p.m. ET
The CAA champion Charleston Cougars look to make an impact after opening as double-digit underdogs (+10.5). They quickly attracted positive betting splits at Fanatics (87.9% of handle, 69.5% of bets), DraftKings (66% of handle, 51% of bets) and BetMGM (63% of handle, 57% of bets) to push the line down to +9.5 across the board.
(14) Morehead State Eagles vs. (3) Illinois Fighting Illini (-11.5)
CHI Health Center Omaha, Omaha, Neb., 3:10 p.m. ET
Of all the line movers and big-money attractors, Morehead State is possibly the most intriguing. The Eagles made a solid two-point jump across the sportsbook market from opening number (+13.5), but it’s their splits that has really made them stand out. Morehead has 90% of the handle at BetMGM, 87% at DraftKings and 63.3% at Fanatics — which is notable because they have only 46.8% of the tickets there, indicating significant big money.
One more quick note: Samford (+7.5) moved down a point from its opening line of +8.5 and also has positive betting splits, but that could at least be partially due to the surge of betting action following the news that Kansas Jayhawks star Kevin McCullar Jr. will miss the tournament.
The Line Flipper
There is one potential upset on the board that has attracted so much money, it caused the sportsbooks to rethink who the favorite was.
No. 10 Drake Bulldogs, fresh off a big win over Indiana State Sycamores in the MVC Championship, opened as a consensus 1.5-point underdog to No. 7 Washington State. Within an hour, the Bulldogs attracted so much line-moving money at Caesars that the spread flipped to Drake -1.5, where it has remained across the board.
The Bulldogs are also seeing positive betting splits, attracting 79.2% of the handle versus 70.0% of the tickets at Fanatics. BetMGM also reports that Drake -1.5 is one of its most-bet teams by handle of the first round.
